Georgia Power: The Rising Bill Forecast and Infrastructure Shifts
Georgia Power's Data Center Dream: A $20 Nightmare for Your Bill?
The hum you hear isn't just the distant thrum of power lines; it's the low, anxious buzz of Georgia’s Public Service Commission (PSC) staff, warning that Georgia Power’s ambitious data center expansion could hit your wallet harder than a missed mortgage payment. On December 19th, the PSC is set to make a critical call on whether to greenlight a massive power generation buildout—a decision that could see residential electricity bills jump by $20 or more each month. This isn't just speculation; it’s a direct analysis from the folks whose job it is to keep an eye on the utility's books.
Georgia Power wants to add a staggering 10,000 megawatts (MW) to its generation fleet over the next five years. To put that in perspective, each of the state's Plant Vogtle nuclear reactors, those colossal concrete cooling towers looming over Burke County, provides roughly 1,100 MW. We’re talking about nearly ten more Vogtle-sized additions in terms of raw power. The utility claims this unprecedented expansion is crucial to meet the demands of a booming data center industry, asserting that 11,000 MW of large load customers have "committed" to their service. But here's where my internal alarm bells start to clang.
The Numbers Just Don't Add Up
The PSC staff, along with their independent consultants, have delivered a stark counter-narrative. They're looking at the same data, but their interpretation, frankly, is far more grounded in reality. Robert Trokey, the PSC’s electric section director, and his team aren't buying Georgia Power's optimism. They state, unequivocally, that only about 1,900 MW of that proposed buildout is actually backed by executed contracts under the new, supposedly customer-protective "large load" framework. The remaining 8,100 MW? That's what they call "speculative," exposing existing customers to the very real risk of stranded costs if the anticipated demand doesn't materialize.
Think of it like this: Georgia Power is proposing to build a sprawling, multi-story parking garage (the power plants) based on a handshake agreement that a fleet of luxury cars (the data centers) might show up. But the PSC staff is looking at the actual pre-paid parking reservations, and they’re seeing a lot of empty spaces. This isn't just a minor discrepancy; it's the difference between a sound investment and a potential financial black hole. I’ve looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular footnote about the lack of executed contracts under the new framework is a glaring red flag. It’s the kind of detail that gets buried, but it tells the whole story.
And the evidence for this skepticism isn’t just theoretical. The PSC staff’s testimony highlights that the data center segment is already "underperforming expectations." Since the 2023 IRP Update, 33 data center projects, representing a colossal 11,332 MW of announced load, have been removed from the pipeline. To be more exact, that’s about 55% of all project removals and a staggering 65% of the announced load that simply vanished. On average, five data center projects have exited the pipeline each quarter. How does Georgia Power’s load forecast model account for such a significant, consistent rate of project cancellation and delay? The staff implies it doesn't, or at least not adequately. Georgia Power’s large load pipeline shrinks by 6 GW
The Looming Cost and a Political Reckoning
Georgia Power, naturally, disagrees with the "speculative" label. A spokesperson pointed to a recent filing claiming their "portfolio" of large customers has indeed grown to 11,000 MW of commitments. They argue the demand is based on their load forecast, underpinned by these commitments and "additional organic growth." They also suggest they have options—new contracts, construction delays, adjusting targets—should demand falter. But the PSC staff’s counter-argument is sharp: most existing data center contracts were inked before the new billing rules designed to protect non-data center customers. "Without executed contracts under the new large load framework," Trokey and the consultants wrote, "there is no guarantee those costs will not be passed on to existing customers."
This isn’t just about future bills; it’s about present frustrations. The staff’s warning comes hot on the heels of a historic defeat for two Republican incumbent PSC commissioners earlier this month. The central issue? You guessed it: rising utility bills. Fitz Johnson and Tim Echols, the outgoing commissioners, will cast votes on this critical case just days before they leave office. The optics aren't great, suggesting a decision potentially out of step with recent voter sentiment. It makes you wonder, doesn't it, if the PSC truly represents the "public service" in its name when such a consequential vote is pushed through by lame-duck officials?
The PSC staff's recommendation is clear: approve only about 3,100 MW now, conditionally approve another 4,200 MW, and flat-out reject the remaining 2,400 MW—the most expensive projects. Why? Because Georgia Power stands to profit "tremendously" from this expansion, potentially nearly doubling its "rate base," a key factor in how its earnings are determined. They're set to make money off customers’ backs, whether the data centers fully materialize or not, covering everything from power plant additions to grid upgrades. It's a classic utility play: socialize the risk, privatize the profit.
A Risky Bet on Your Dime
The data, when stripped of corporate optimism, paints a clear picture of significant risk. Georgia Power is betting big on an industry segment that, according to the PSC’s own analysts, has a documented history of cancellations and over-forecasted demand. And who’s holding the bag if that bet goes south? You are. The residential customer, already grappling with rising costs, is being asked to underwrite a speculative venture that disproportionately benefits the utility’s bottom line. It’s a gamble that, frankly, doesn’t pass the smell test for anyone who actually has to pay an electric bill.